What to trust in a 'post-truth' world

By Alex Edmonds. The recorded TED talk can be found here. Alex talks about how confirmation bias could lead us astray in the current world. He then provides a very compelling argument, urging us to consider data and evidence very consciously.

Summary

  1. Confirmation bias - we accept stories that match our beliefs and reject those that don't. This is especially true in politics, business and health.
  2. We need to check if the data supports the theory, but instead we end up checking of the data is consistent with the theory!
  3. This consistency is alone not sufficient, because the same data could also be consistent with the rival theory! (Due to confirmation bias, we'll never check for this)
  4. Because of this bias we also accept a fact as data. And also accept data as evidence, even if it consistent with rival theories.
  5. Data is a collection of facts. Evidence is the data that supports one theory while ruling our others.
  6. A story is not fact, because it may not be true.
  7. A fact is not data, because it might not be representative.
  8. Data is not evidence, because it might be consistent with rival theories.
  9. Actively seek out for rival points.
  10. Play devil's advocate with your decisions/theories.
  11. Pause before sharing anything!
  12. Only if it's true, it can be a fact. Only if it's representative, it can be data. Only if it's supportive, can it be evidence.